Troy Renck: Quarterback Bo Nix bought a $4 million house, but when will he feel at home in the Broncos offense? The Broncos begin training camp this week with the first public practice on Friday. A single question hangs over the team: How will Nix play in his rookie season? Nix is not the average draft pick. He played with Dan Fouts at Oregon and Bo Jackson at Auburn (I kid because I care). But, Sean, he set a record with 61 FBS starts over five years. His development should be microwaved. So, what will he accomplish in his first season? What will his stats and success look like?
Sean Keeler: Here’s a low bar: The Broncos record for passing yards by a rookie QB remains in the hands of Mickey Slaughter — 1,689, set all the way back in 1963. If Nix can get ol’ Mickey off the books, that’s a win right there. As far as actual wins? Let’s put it this way: The four Broncos rookie signal-callers since 1992 who threw the most passes in their rookie seasons in Denver — Drew Lock, Jay Cutler, Tommy Maddox and Brandon Allen (!) — made a combined 17 starts and posted a record of 7-10. Ya know what? That sounds just about right.
Renck: After a few hours of research, the numbers are sobering. Of the 16 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2019-2023, only four posted a winning record (Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett and C.J. Stroud) and one didn’t take a snap (Jordan Love). The average season for the 15 over the past five years: 4-7 record, 14 touchdowns, nine interceptions and 32 sacks. The sweet spot for Nix resides in Jones’ 2021 season with the Patriots. So along the lines of 22 touchdowns, 13 picks, 28 sacks and a completion percentage of roughly 63%.
Keeler: If he looks like 2021 Mac Jones, the Broncos will be in pretty decent shape. If he looks like 2023 Mac Jones, Katie bar the door. From a statistical standpoint, anything in the range of 15-18 touchdowns, with five to six more TDs than interceptions (so, 10-13 picks), and 2,800-3,000 passing yards would have to be a success, right? But those numbers assume he’s playing pretty much from Day 1, Week 1. And those numbers feel awfully optimistic.
Renck: But Sean, the evaluation goes beyond the numbers. I expect Nix to have a losing record. But what does he look like? Does he command the huddle? Is he audibling at the line of scrimmage and executing the offense on time and using the entire route tree? Does he avoid silly sacks? And do his coaches and teammates see him as a leader, as the future? If the answer to the last question is yes after the final game on Jan. 5 vs. Chiefs, then his season will be a success.
Keeler: Sean Payton isn’t playing to win a fantasy league — he’s trying to win games in the AFC West. With a rookie QB, intangibles matter just as much, if not more, than the stats. It’s about comfort level, process and progress. The sacks and the ill-advised picks are inevitable, forgivable mistakes for a first-year guy. But do those moments wane over the course of the season? Or do they get worse? If defenses start to fear Nix more by late December than the other way around, that’s a heck of a good sign.
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