This is not a competition. It is a decision.
The Broncos continue to rotate three quarterbacks, splitting first-time reps between Jarrett Stidham, Bo Nix and Zach Wilson. The starter will be decided on mindset, not the stat sheet.
What philosophy will coach Sean Payton adopt? Play the steady veteran who likely gives the Broncos the best chance to win early in the season? Go with the first-round pick, live with the mistakes and be willing to sacrifice drives, if not games, for his development? Or push all the chips in on a reclamation project with the most arm talent?
Through spring workouts and four days of training camp, a case can be made for Stidham, Nix and Wilson. This is not a surprise. What is becoming more apparent is that none of the three is capable of running away and hiding in this derby. No Secretariat exists in the bunch.
This means the choice will come down to what Payton wants. The default should be Nix. The Broncos are in transition, a young and hungry team, Payton reminds us on a daily basis. It doesn’t take much to see Nix as the face of this process.
He is the franchise’s highest-drafted quarterback since Jay Cutler, considered Drew Brees Lite. Payton hand-picked him even as draftniks questioned the sixth quarterback drafted last spring possessing the chops to restore a franchise’s glory.
Nix is no ordinary rookie. He is 24 and started 61 college games. While he looked the part in the spring, he pressed the first three days of camp. Evaluating only completions, he ranked third.
Coaches, however, use a more layered rubric. Given two plays at the line of scrimmage, does the quarterback get the team into the right one? Does he factor in down and distance and coverage before letting the ball loose? An incompletion on third-and-12 is an acceptable outcome, whereas missing an open target on third-and-2 is not.
Nix finally flashed on a steamy Saturday before a big crowd on the berm. His worst play of the summer brought out his best. Veteran cornerback Levi Wallace baited Nix on a ball in the flat, acting like he was going deep, before undercutting the route for an easy interception.
What happened next is the evidence Payton can point to if Nix tops the depth chart on Sept. 8. In team drills, the former Oregon star lobbed a rainbow to running back Javonte Williams on a wheel route for an outstretched touchdown. The pass could not have been more precise if it was a DNA test.
Nix finished with three scores in his final five passes, excelling in the short red zone, where the Broncos were awful last season. This stretch wasn’t an aha moment, but it showed why the Broncos fell for him in the draft process.
Nix possesses a high football IQ, and noticeable mobility. However, balancing when to take chances and take care of the ball in the NFL remains an art.
“What’s the risk versus the reward?” Nix said. “It’s all about being confident. Sometimes you do take a risk and it doesn’t work out and you learn from it and minimize it. But at the same time, you don’t want to be a gun-shy quarterback.”
This remains my concern about this three-way race that should see reps divided differently when the Broncos return to practice Monday. Checkdown Charlies complete a lot of passes. And lose a lot of games.
No one wants to see a quarterback connect on 16 of 20 passes for 95 yards. This is the challenge. Quarterbacks can lose depth chart battles with turnovers. Every one of these competitions I have covered featured a winner that protected the ball like his ATM pin number.
So, again, what does Payton want? If the starter is the quarterback with the best numbers, it will be Stidham. He knows the offense. He makes the routine plays. And he is the leader of the group, easily one of the most popular players in the locker room. He has become The Forgotten Man. Does that motivate him? I asked.
“I am one to kind of let my play do the talking. I am not really worried about (external) opinions of others,” Stidham said. “I care about these guys on the team and the people inside my home. That’s what matters most.”
Wilson brings the wow factor, his misfires sandwiching a throw that no one else on the team can make. His backfoot flick to rookie Troy Franklin ranks as the most memorable of camp thus far. Shouldn’t that count for something? Wilson has talent, and a blank slate. But there are still too many plays where he looks like the erratic starter from the Jets.
“I am just focused on doing my absolute best every single day,” Wilson said. “I love playing football and throwing the ball out here.”
The three quarterbacks have formed a fast friendship. No one celebrated more than Stidham when Nix connected with Williams for the score. The chemistry is obvious on this team. The players like each other. But they like winning more.
The choice at quarterback will go a long way in determining whether the Broncos are an afterthought or return to relevance. The last two times Broncos Country went through this, the outcome was predictable. Vic Fangio was always going with trusted journeyman Teddy Bridgewater. And Trevor Siemian was an easy pick for Vance Joseph because Paxton Lynch made every series look like an argument with an umpire — noisy, messy and uncomfortable.
This is billed as a quarterback competition. It is not. It is Payton’s decision. What does he want?
Nix might not be the fix. But given where the Broncos are right now, he makes the most sense.
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