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Back the underdog in Game 5 tonight

Against the odds, the Edmonton Oilers have gained three video games in a row to push the Calgary Flames to the brink of elimination in the Battle of Alberta on Thursday evening. The Oilers, who began the sequence as a +160 underdog, are actually -600 favorites to advance to the Western Conference Final. 

Not all hope is lost for the Flames, although, as Calgary at present sits as a -160 favourite to win Game 5 and get the sequence again north to Edmonton. 

Oftentimes when an underdog is on the verge of pulling an upset in a playoff sequence we instantly default to the viewpoint that the favourite has fallen quick, however in this sequence, it’s been extra about the Oilers getting this sequence to be performed on their phrases. Edmonton clearly got here up with and has executed a savvy recreation plan that has neutralized Calgary’s greatest strengths.

Oilers vs. Flames Game 5 odds

Odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: EDM +1.5 (-195) vs. CAL -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline: EDM (+135) vs. CAL (-155)

Total: Over 6.5 (-125) | Under 6.5 (+105)




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Oilers vs. Flames prediction and decide

One factor that the Flames appear to be having an actual robust time adjusting to is how nicely goaltender Mike Smith handles the puck. Calgary’s offensive recreation plan revolves round a relentless forecheck, however Smith’s capacity to retrieve and distribute the puck rapidly extinguishes the forecheck earlier than it even will get began.

And even when Calgary will get some offensive zone time, the Oilers have finished a superb job at maintaining the Flames to the outdoors. In truth, it looks as if Edmonton’s recreation plan is to permit Calgary to have the lion’s share of the puck, be affected person after which capitalize on a counter-attack if/when the Flames get unfastened with the biscuit.

Oilers vs. Flames face off
Getty Images

The Flames have registered a major benefit in shot makes an attempt (218 to 144) at 5-on-5, however solely 40 of these makes an attempt have certified as high-danger scoring possibilities and 13 of these got here in Calgary’s Game 1 victory.

Since then, the Oilers have restricted the Flames to simply 27 high-danger scoring possibilities, whereas posting 24 for themselves. The anticipated targets over the final three video games are additionally principally useless even with Calgary posting 5.92 xGF and Edmonton tallying 5.8. 

Those sorts of 5-on-5 splits will at all times sit nicely with the Oilers, particularly after they have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evander Kane firing on all cylinders. With that sort of star energy, Edmonton will at all times wager on McDavid and company to be the distinction in tight video games.


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At the present costs, the Oilers do appear to be the worth facet as they’ve confirmed that the hole between them and the Flames shouldn’t be as vast as the odds recommended when this sequence first opened. That mentioned, it is going to be very attention-grabbing to see the place the line for Game 5 goes, as there are some conflicting market-influencing narratives at play. 

On one hand, the Oilers are on a roll with three spectacular wins in a row. On the different hand, that is an elimination recreation at dwelling for the Flames and people circumstances normally result in money exhibiting up on the staff in the must-win spot. 

The decide: Edmonton Oilers +135 (DraftKings Sportsbook)